Before President Trump was inaugurated on January 20, he labelled himself to be the mastermind of the current Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement. Still, former President Biden also emphasised his government’s role in brokering the deal. However, the Qataris and Egyptians played a pivotal part in the agreement by hosting and helping the conflicting parties with negotiations as well. “The Hostage Deal” signed on January 19, 2025, consists of three distinctive phases each designated to de-escalate hostilities and address humanitarian aspects of the tensions between the Jewish State and Hamas-led Gaza Strip.

First Stage: Immediate Humanitarian Measures and Initial Prisoner Exchange.

For the following six weeks of the agreement, Hamas has said they are committed to releasing 33 Israeli hostages primarily focusing on elderly people with health difficulties, female soldiers and infants under 18 in exchange for 1904 Palestinian prisoners, including those who are currently serving life sentences for terrorism and other atrocities they committed or had planned to perpetrate. One of the predominant aspects of the ceasefire deal is to allow humanitarian aid to flood into the Gaza Strip. Currently, it is anticipated that Israeli authorities will grant access to 600 lorries daily. At the same time, 50 fuel trucks will be operated to provide the region with essential oil to run electricity for hospitals, bakeries and health centres. This deal will also oversee dislocated Palestinian civilians moving around within Gaza. As a part of the agreement, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) are urged to initially withdraw from certain parts of Gaza restricting their military drills up to 12 hours maximum in a day.

However, by 16 February the first phase commitments have not been fully fulfilled due to delays and other sorts of communicational and logistical issues. Only 21 Israeli hostages have now been released, while the State of Israel has delivered 1100 Palestinian prisoners including the most notorious terrorists like Iyad Abu Shkeidem and Hatem al-Jayousi who caused mayhem to Israeli civilians as a leading commander in the Hamas terrorist group and during the second intifada. While Hamas threatened to halt all the hostage exchanges, Egypt and Qatar managed to compel them to abide by the terms agreed upon in January.

Second Stage: Comprehensive Prisoner Exchange and Establishment of Sustainable Calm.

The second stage of the Hostage Deal seems to consolidate the ceasefire by releasing every single Israeli hostage kept in the dungeons of the Hamas tunnels. Nonetheless, it is yet to be determined how many Palestinian prisoners will be freed in exchange. A critical and fragile component of this stage is the mutual declaration of a "sustainable calm," accompanied by the complete withdrawal of Israeli military forces from the Gaza Strip.  It happens to be a turning point for the Israeli Government and the War Cabinet whose main goal is to ensure the safety and security of their country by eliminating any menace posed by Iran and its proxies in Gaza. The scepticism for this state is currently skyrocketing due to pressure from senior cabinet ministers like Itamar Ben Gvir and other extreme right-wing members of the Knesset. Their resignation from the government is an indication of mistrust in the government’s approach to reaching any deal that, in their view, jeopardises Israel’s national security. The second phase of the ceasefire agreement generally relies on the successful implementation of the first stage and is scheduled to commence after the initial six-week period, provided both parties adhere to the agreed terms. As of today, President Trump’s support for the State of Israel has solidified the American position to stand with the Jewish State if unpredictability remains high and the deal proceeds to be weaponised by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

Third Stage: Finalisation of Prisoner Exchanges and Lifting of the Blockade.

The last part of the Hostage Deal is also its most uncertain phrase. It starts with bartering the deceased Israelis’ corpses for the release of the remains of the Palestinian militants who committed October 7 terrorist attacks in Southern Israel. On one hand, the agreement anticipates Israel to lift its blockade of the Gaza Strip while facilitating an environment where regional reconstruction can resume. On the other hand, it is a complex issue as Hamas also needs to renounce its ambition to destroy the world’s only Jewish State by restricting its military capabilities. The successful execution of this stage is heavily reliant on the trust and compliance built during the preceding phases.

Every stage of the agreement is observed by Egypt, Qatar, the United Nations and the United States who act as guarantors of the ceasefire deal. These parties handle complicated measures such as monitoring the implementation of the agreement and facilitating the negotiations. The international community is involved in underscoring the global significance of achieving lasting peace and stability in the region. One could argue the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas outlines a structured path toward de-escalation and peace, but this is not the case.

Complications in sight

The geopolitical tensions surrounding the future of Gaza remain at an all-time high after President Trump unveiled his controversial plan aimed at turning Gaza into a prosperous regional hub for business and tourism. He also stated that the Gazans are to be relocated to other Arab countries, particularly to Egypt and Jordan to facilitate a new future for the Gaza Strip which will be completely rebuilt. President Trump envisions Gaza as the new “Riviera of the Middle East” where anyone from the region can come and contribute positively to his plan. Nevertheless, this has been widely criticised by the Arab world which perceived this initiative as both humiliating and a potential catalyst for regional instability. Even though the King of Jordan, Abdullah II was sceptical about the relocation of the Gazans first, after his meeting in the White House, he came out to be supportive of taking some Palestinians into his country. King Abdullah II also believes he will manage to reach a deal with Cairo regarding the future of the Gazans while both Egypt and the Hashemite Kingdom are two of the largest recipients of the US Foreign Aid. The Israeli government is also optimistic about Trump’s suggestions for Gaza citing President Trump’s vision as bold and innovative at the Rubio meeting.

The reaction of Hamas to Trump’s proposal was dire. They maintain their defiant stance to reject this motion. The organisation has also threatened to continue their attacks on Israel in case their demands are neglected by both Washington DC and Jerusalem. The most contentious issue is Hamas’ requirement to continue ruling over the Gaza Strip after the conflict ends, which is unacceptable for Israel which for a while pondered about adding a clause that would demand the senior Hamas members to leave the region into exile after a deal is done. Despite some reports insisting on Hamas’ intention to step down as the ruling party in Gaza, it looks very likely based on their actions.

The position of the Netanyahu government is an articulation of its paramount requirements on the future of Gaza is Hamas’ total exclusion from ever ruling over Gaza again while respecting the ceasefire agreements to secure a safe passage for the release of the Israeli hostages. PM Netanyahu has also stressed Israel’s right to resume military action if deemed essential.  

The Israeli Government’s perspective on neutralising and derailing all aspects of Hamas aligns with the statements of senior US officials such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who advocate for the eradication of Hamas to ensure regional stability. The interplay of the US foreign policy, Hamas’ unwillingness to tolerate an independent Jewish State and Israel’s pragmatic imperatives to security pursue to orchestrate the complex and evolving situation in Gaza.

Based on media reports, Qatar plays a pivotal role in this conflict. Doha’s ultimate position is to bridge the dialogue between Gaza and the Israel/US alliance and to boost humanitarian efforts while financially supporting Hamas, which is a contentious point that is often reflected in Western media outlets. Their official manifesto includes a sustainable ceasefire and advocacy for a two-state solution. The gas-rich nation’s ties with former Hamas leaders are deemed troublesome. Hence, there is a lot of criticism of the Qatari investment in advancing the organisation’s military capacities. Their financial support enabled the US-recognised terrorist organisation to maintain power with the military support of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Iran’s waning influence coupled with the damage inflicted on its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah, has also shaped the narrative during the conflict. Trump’s “Gaza Relocation Plan” and threats to impose more sanctions or carry out attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities did not go down well with the Islamic Regime as their Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, dismissed their threats, asserting that such actions violate international law and emphasising that neither the U.S. nor Israel can harm Tehran.

Amidst other geopolitical disagreements, another concerning issue has emerged after Israeli Ambassador Yechiel Leiter accused Egypt of violating the peace treaty by expanding its military presence in Sinai. It is believed the Israeli side is distressed about neighbouring Egypt’s military buildup, including the deployment of their troops to the Sinai Peninsula which was once under Israeli control. This situation is a result of Israel’s planned takeover of the Rafah area as well as the disagreements over the strategically important Philadelphi Corridor. Egypt has warned against an Israeli takeover which would possibly violate the Peace Treaty signed in 1979 but the Jewish State views it as an essential element of their national security.

Given all these factors, the ceasefire now looks unlikely to hold due to several factors, ranging from the sides’ fundamental disagreement over the status of Palestine, deep-seated mistrust, Hamas’ ongoing threats and Israel’s willingness to completely exterminate the danger for itself. The recent return of the bodies of Shiri Bibas and her two toddlers who were abducted and brutally murdered by Hamas has also caused anger and reinforced the disbelief in any ceasefire agreement with a terrorist organisation within the Israeli society. At the same time, the Israeli offensive on Gaza that eliminated large fractions of Hamas while resulting in collateral damage, as well as the undisguised calls for relocating the Arab population of Gaza to permanently other Arab-majority counties have been weaponised by Palestinian side. With rising regional tensions, Egyptian military manoeuvres, and the unorthodox approach of the new Trump administration, the ceasefire is merely a temporary pause in a conflict that is far from over. As concessions are now out of sight, the world embraces itself for another regional escalation in the Middle East.